On the eve of his 40th birthday, Mickelson said the course is "the best U.S. Open setup I've seen," but suggested that without rain or a little more watering the small and firm greens could easily become unplayable. That is something Mickelson, who has finished second five times in the U.S. Open over the last 11 years, hopes the United States Golf Association can avoid. He doesn't want to see a repeat of the farce that took place in the 2004 U.S. Open at Shinnecock where players could not stop the ball on the seventh green.
"I'm certainly concerned we could have 14 potential seventh holes at Shinnecock if we're not careful," Mickelson said.
It's not hard to understand Mickelson's concern. One of his record five second-place finishes in the event came at Shinnecock in 2004. The others came in 1999 at Pinehurst, 2002 at Bethpage Black, 2006 at Winged Foot and 2009 at Bethpage Black.
Whether USGA officials listen to Mickelson or not, there already is potential for problems on the par-5 14th, especially with the front left hole location. That’s where Paul Goydos lost a one-shot lead in the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February with a quadruple-bogey 9, when his wedge went down the slope to the left. His first chip came back at his feet. The next one rolled down the slope on the front of the green.
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Mickelson can reach No. 1 for the first time in his career by winning at Pebble Beach. But there are more scenarios in Mickelson's favor, according to the Associated Press:
He would go to No. 1 by finishing runner-up as long as Woods finishes out of the top four. Mickelson could finish third at the U.S. Open and go to No. 1 if Woods were to finish out of the top 18.
If Woods misses the cut, Mickelson would need no worse than a two-way tie for third.
Woods has been No. 1 for the last five years.
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Golf.com reports that people don't always agree with "the experts" when it comes time to place bets:
Las Vegas sportsbooks have Woods as a 4-1 favorite to win this week's tournament, followed closely by Mickelson at 5-1. Lee Westwood is the third choice at 10-1, according to Chuck Esposito, casino operations manager at the Tropicana Hotel in Las Vegas.
That means that a $1 bet on Woods will pay $4 if he wins the tournament. It sounds like short odds, but Esposito said 4 to 1 is actually a value bet for Woods at a major.
"That's not short on him," Esposito said. " At a major, he's usually even money or even laying money at 5 to 6 or 5 to 7."
Woods was a 4-to-1 favorite at this year's Masters, which was his first event following his sex scandals and ensuing five-month layoff. Woods finished tied for fourth at the Masters, and his inconsistent play since then has most golf observers calling Mickelson, not Woods, the favorite at Pebble.
Esposito said that casinos set their odds based on how they think the public will bet, which doesn't always match the so-called experts' picks.
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Speaking to media members yesterday, Woods said that Mickelson's second-place finishes show that he knows how to play a U.S. Open venue. "This is the toughest event to win and he's been there so many times, it's just a matter of time before he wins," Woods said. "He understands how to put himself there and what it takes over the long haul to be in that position, and that's not easy to do."
Still one wonders how Mickelson will react if he reaches the 72nd hole this week in the lead. He was in that position in 2006 at Winged Foot when a meltdown off the tee of epic proportions opened the door for a Geoff Ogilvy victory. The 18th hole at Pebble Beach, guarded along the left by Stillwater Cove, could provide some real drama if a similar situation arises.
Information from Golf.com, ESPN.com, PGATOUR.com and GolfOberver.com contributed to this post.
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